fitVirusCV19v3 (COVID-19 SIR Model)

Version 3.4.8 (3.57 MB) by Joshua McGee
Estimation of coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic evaluation by the SIR model, Code receives and plots most recent data from HDX.
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Updated 3 May 2020

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This code will retrieve recent data from the HDX and attempt to fit it to a SIR model using structure created by Milan Batista (https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74658-fitviruscovid19?s_tid=prof_contriblnk). The model is data-driven, so its forecast is as good as data are. Also, it is assumed that the model is a reasonable description of the one-stage epidemic.

Results are saved in structure res (see function fiVirusCV19 header). Optionally the results may be printed by:

fitVirusCV19v3(“Italy",'prn','on')

The plot may be enabled or disabled via (default is on):
fitVirusCV19v3(“Italy",'plt','off')

To plot the growth rate on the figure use (def value is 2)
fitVirusCV19v3("Italy",'nsp',3)

To plot the R0 as a function of time
fitVirusCV19v3("Italy",'r0analysis','on')

A more detailed description can be found in:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339311383_Estimation_of_the_final_size_of_the_coronavirus_epidemic_by_the_SIR_model
Examples can be found in:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339912313_Forecasting_of_final_COVID-19_epidemic_size_200318

Cite As

Joshua McGee (2026). fitVirusCV19v3 (COVID-19 SIR Model) (https://in.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74676-fitviruscv19v3-covid-19-sir-model), MATLAB Central File Exchange. Retrieved .

MATLAB Release Compatibility
Created with R2019b
Compatible with R2019b and later releases
Platform Compatibility
Windows macOS Linux
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Version Published Release Notes
3.4.8

updated 5/2
3.4.7

updated 5/1/20
3.4.6

updated 4/30
3.4.5

updated 4/22
3.4.4

updated 4/22
3.4.3

updated info
3.4.2

updated 4/18
3.4.1

updated 4/17
3.4

-updated notes and data for 4/15
3.3.9

updated with link to in-depth description of model
3.3.8

updated 4/15
3.3.7

updated 4/13
3.3.6

-updated
3.3.5

-slight bug fixes (error with plotting data that failed to fit the model)
-adjusted accuracy by changing data selection algorithm
3.3.4

updated 4/12, introduced the ability to plot changes in R0 over time with 'r0analysis' command
3.3.3

updated 4/11
3.3.2

-updated 4/10
3.3.1

updated 4/9
3.3

-updated 4/8
3.2.9

-updated (4/6)
3.2.8

-updated
3.2.7

-small fix
3.2.6

-image
3.2.5

-minor updates and corrections
3.2.4

-improved initial parameter approximation (courtesy of Milan Batista)
3.2.3

-updated examples
3.2.2

-updated with data from 4/2
3.2.1

-image
3.2

-updated 4/1
3.1.9

-bug fixes
3.1.8

-updated 3/31 8:40 PM EST
3.1.7

-updated aesthetics of examples
3.1.6

-updated examples
3.1.5

-updated plots for today (3/30)
3.1.4

-bug fix
3.1.3

-updated examples
3.1.2

-image
3.1.1

-compatibility notes
3.1

-updated examples
3.0

-updated plots and fixed small bug
2.9

-added death rate to example
2.8

-updated examples
2.7

-added ability to disable plot and created a live script to tabulate the R0 values of each country
2.6

-added Indonesia
2.5

-bug fixes and compatibility
2.3

-compatibility
2.2

-attempted to fix additional variable name Compatability issues
2.1

-compatibility
2.0.9

-fixed all compatibility issues
2.0.8

-bug fixes
2.0.7

-image
2.0.6

-description
2.0.5

-updated date ticks
2.0.4

-new data source (updated database)
2.0.3

-description
2.0.2

-updated compatibility
2.0.1

-updated description
2.0

-applied updates courtesy of Milan Batista (RMSE correction, automatic parameter selection)
1.0.4

-name change
1.0.3

-added tags
1.0.2

-fixed live script
1.0.1

-added live script to generate plots
1.0.0