How can i forecast future production using trained time series data?

how can i forecast future value for the data i trained using time series neural network tool? this is the script i got.
% Solve an Autoregression Time-Series Problem with a NAR Neural Network % Script generated by Neural Time Series app % Created 04-Apr-2018 20:22:20 % % This script assumes this variable is defined: % % RealData - feedback time series.
T = tonndata(RealData,true,false);
% Choose a Training Function % For a list of all training functions type: help nntrain % 'trainlm' is usually fastest. % 'trainbr' takes longer but may be better for challenging problems. % 'trainscg' uses less memory. Suitable in low memory situations. trainFcn = 'trainlm'; % Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation.
% Create a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network feedbackDelays = 1:2; hiddenLayerSize = 10; net = narnet(feedbackDelays,hiddenLayerSize,'open',trainFcn);
% Prepare the Data for Training and Simulation % The function PREPARETS prepares timeseries data for a particular network, % shifting time by the minimum amount to fill input states and layer % states. Using PREPARETS allows you to keep your original time series data % unchanged, while easily customizing it for networks with differing % numbers of delays, with open loop or closed loop feedback modes. [x,xi,ai,t] = preparets(net,{},{},T);
% Setup Division of Data for Training, Validation, Testing net.divideParam.trainRatio = 70/100; net.divideParam.valRatio = 15/100; net.divideParam.testRatio = 15/100;
% Train the Network [net,tr] = train(net,x,t,xi,ai);
% Test the Network y = net(x,xi,ai); e = gsubtract(t,y); performance = perform(net,t,y)
% View the Network view(net)
% Plots % Uncomment these lines to enable various plots. %figure, plotperform(tr) %figure, plottrainstate(tr) %figure, ploterrhist(e) %figure, plotregression(t,y) %figure, plotresponse(t,y) %figure, ploterrcorr(e) %figure, plotinerrcorr(x,e)
% Closed Loop Network % Use this network to do multi-step prediction. % The function CLOSELOOP replaces the feedback input with a direct % connection from the outout layer. netc = closeloop(net); netc.name = [net.name ' - Closed Loop']; view(netc) [xc,xic,aic,tc] = preparets(netc,{},{},T); yc = netc(xc,xic,aic); closedLoopPerformance = perform(net,tc,yc)
% Step-Ahead Prediction Network % For some applications it helps to get the prediction a timestep early. % The original network returns predicted y(t+1) at the same time it is % given y(t+1). For some applications such as decision making, it would % help to have predicted y(t+1) once y(t) is available, but before the % actual y(t+1) occurs. The network can be made to return its output a % timestep early by removing one delay so that its minimal tap delay is now % 0 instead of 1. The new network returns the same outputs as the original % network, but outputs are shifted left one timestep. nets = removedelay(net); nets.name = [net.name ' - Predict One Step Ahead']; view(nets) [xs,xis,ais,ts] = preparets(nets,{},{},T); ys = nets(xs,xis,ais); stepAheadPerformance = perform(nets,ts,ys)
(e.g. i want to forecast for the production of (object) for 2030)

Answers (1)

1. Format your code so that it will run when copied and pasted.
2. Test your code on the documentation example.
3. If step 2 is satisfactory, try with your data.
4. If step 2 is not satisfactory, write back with details.
Hope this helps
Greg

1 Comment

how can i format the code so that it will show the whole code here? thanks for responding is my question

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on 4 Apr 2018

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